This article was updated May 24, 2022, with NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Whether that’s related to global warming isn’t clear yet, but the impact of a warming trend could be devastating. – and found the storms produced more rain than they would have in a world without the effects of human-caused climate change.Īnother trend we have been noticing is that the Loop Current’s warm eddies have more heat than we saw 10 to 15 years ago. A study examined the 2020 hurricane season – which had a record 30 named storms, 12 of them hitting the U.S. right front quadrant of the storm, relative to the direction of forward motion. Studies suggest that the Atlantic is likely to see more storms intensify into major hurricanes as those temperatures rise, though there won’t necessarily be more storms overall. Hurricane - A tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of. Much of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases that are released by human activities is stored in the oceans, where it can provide additional fuel for hurricanes. Climate change has a roleĪs global temperatures rise, the ocean’s temperature is increasing. Dust from the Sahara and low humidity can both reduce the likelihood storms will form. Even before then, the conditions over West Africa are crucial to whether tropical storms form at all in the Atlantic. It’s too soon to tell what will happen with the steering winds that guide tropical storms and affect where they go. For now, the upper atmosphere is doing little that would stop a hurricane from intensifying. La Niña has been unusually strong in spring 2022, though it’s possible that it could weaken later in the year, allowing more wind shear toward the end of the season. With favorable atmospheric conditions, this deep reservoir of heat helped the storm explode almost overnight into a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 hurricane. The eddy that fueled Hurricane Ida in 2021 was over 86 F (30 C) at the surface and had heat down to about 590 feet (180 meters). By summer, that heat could extend down to around 500 feet (about 150 meters). In mid-May 2022, satellite data showed the Loop Current had water temperatures 78 F or warmer down to about 330 feet (100 meters). These effects inhibit ocean mixing and sea surface cooling, allowing the warm current and its eddies to retain heat to great depths. But the Loop Current’s subtropical water is deeper and warmer, and also saltier, than Gulf common water. Normally, these upper ocean waters mix, allowing warm spots to cool quickly. Hurricanes draw most of their strength from the top 100 feet (30 meters) of the ocean. But once tropical storms reach waters that are around 78 F (26 C) or warmer, they can strengthen into hurricanes. Warm ocean water doesn’t necessarily mean more tropical storms. The Loop Current has the potential to supercharge some of those storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with 14-21 named storms, six to 10 of them hurricanes. The conditions I see in the Gulf in May 2022 are cause for concern. I have been monitoring ocean heat content for more than 30 years as a marine scientist. However, there is still a small chance it could be deemed Tropical Storm Arlene before it fizzles on Saturday.The Loop Current in May 2005 looked strikingly similar to May 2022. Unfavorable upper-level winds will continue to impact the tropical depression, so no strengthening is forecast. Therefore, it's no direct threat to the U.S. Where it will track: We expect this system to continue moving to the south or southeast over the next day or so. However, some occasional bands of locally heavy rain could impact parts of the Florida Peninsula at times on Friday. Most of the rain from this tropical depression is concentrated just north and east of its center over the Gulf of Mexico. Where this system is right now: Tropical Depression Two is currently centered more than 300 miles off the coast of western Florida and is moving slowly to the south. This system was designated a tropical depression based on a Thursday afternoon Hurricane Hunter mission finding a closed circulation of low pressure with enough persistent thunderstorms near it. Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.
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